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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Reflections on the NITI Aayog Multidimensional Poverty Index
2. India’s Nuclear Doctrine
3. Climate Change and the Miyawaki Forests
4. Policy Initiatives and a Strained Indian Telecom Industry

1. Reflections on the NITI Aayog Multidimensional Poverty Index

Context

This article critically analyses the methodology used in the NITI Aayog’s Multidimensional Poverty Index.

Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

• The National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) has been released by NITI Aayog in line with the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index.
• The Global Multidimensional Poverty Index is released by the UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. 
• The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is determined based on various factors which highlight the socio-economic situation of the people.
• The MPIs are estimated with a focus on the Sustainable Development Goal – Monitoring Poverty which is one of the 29 indices for monitoring reform and growth.
• In November 2021, the NITI Aayog ­released the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for India.

The Methodology used in the estimations of MPI

• The MPIs are estimated on the basis of three key aspects of human development namely,
  • Health
  • Education 
  • Standard of living of the population 
• These three aspects are represented by a set of 10 indicators mainly from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data sets and other nationally representative surveys conducted by countries.
• The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) has been generating estimates of MPIs for about 109 developing countries, using the Alkire–Foster method and these estimates are being included in the global Human Development Report (HDR).
• The Alkire–Foster method gives three indices, 
  • Percentage of multidimensional poor persons (H)
    • H = ratio of multidimensional poor to total population
  • Intensity of poverty (a)
    • a = average of weighted score on indicators the poor are deprived of
  • MPI, a composite index based on H and a.
    • MPI = proportion of weighted deprivation that the poor experience in a society out of all total potential deprivation in the society 
    • i.e. MPI = H * a
• The national-level MPIs are estimated using data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS).

Issues with the MPI estimates

• Estimates of MPI used the reports of NFHS-4 survey data which were available in 2015–16, thus the estimates are not for 2021.
• The MPI estimates are restricted to the indicators mentioned in the NFHS-4 survey data. 
  • The NFHS data sets are mainly aimed at providing information on the demo­graphic and maternal health indications in the country. 
  • Hence, many key factors in the domain of health, education and standard of living are absent in these NFHS data sets. 
  • Example: Nut­rition indicator in the MPI does not consider the nutrition level of children aged 6 -14 years, as the NFHS does not estimate the nutrition performance in this group of children.
• The fixing of the cut-off point (threshold point) in terms of multidimensional poverty is based on a value judgment.
  • A general cut-off of 0.33 is fixed arbitrarily sans theoretical justification.
• The exclusion of various crucial indicators in the health, education and standard of living domains and the inc­lusion of indicators such as the “access to banking” in the standard of living domain seems to be absurd, as about 90% of the families in India have some kind of access to banking (through post offices, rural banks, cooperatives, etc.)
• Estimates are mainly based on microdata which is beyond the understanding of political leaders for critical evaluation and resolution.

Impact of deprivations in the Health, Education and the Standard of living domains

• The health domain is represented by three factors which are nutrition, survivorship and preventive maternal care.
• Such deprivations ignore the vulnerability to undernourishment between various ages.
• These estimates that don’t consider such important aspects are likely to be less accurate.
• The proposed indicator does not involve the aspects of the quality of school education.
• Educational deprivation in one area is different from ano­ther due to various factors like access to institutions and the availability of educational infrastructure.
  • Failure to capture these differences and the universal method of estimations will not provide a complete picture of the poverty situation in India.
• The standard of living domain takes into account various amenities such as access to cooking fuel, electricity, water, and sanitation the absence of which do not represent deprivation.
  • Also, these aspects/factors that show regional variations and deprivation in them require differentiation across regions and rural/urban setups.
• An arbitrary estimation of these aspects in the process of aggregation of overall poverty makes no sense as these aspects are interdependent and interrelated.

Replacing Consumption Poverty estimation with Multidimensional Poverty Index

• The consumption poverty index provides information on economic deprivation and its trends also take into account the other deprivations to a large extent. 
• Although there are various limitations with respect to consumption poverty estimation such as challenges in identification, the estimation process must not be completely replaced with the MPI as the factors considered for the identification of components in multidimensional poverty do not represent all sections of society.
• Hence the MPI can be used to supplement consumption poverty but cannot be an ideal alternative. 
• Therefore the Consumption Expenditure Survey conducted by the NSSO cannot be replaced, as it helps in the estimation of consumption poverty as well as in reading development transition at a larger scale.

2. India’s Nuclear Doctrine

Context

The article analyses the need for reviewing the Nuclear Doctrine of India.

Background

• In recent years, Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine periodically to cater to its needs and it has also increased its nuclear force readiness as a response to what it calls the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
• This was facilitated by a change in the Russian nuclear doctrine released in 2020 which saw the withdrawal of Russia from Cold War arms control treaties of the US, with the only exception being the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).
• The recent developments have relevance for India which is facing a hostile environment in its neighbourhood. India needs to reevaluate its nuclear strategies.
• Indian nuclear forces are further restricted by its “No First Use policy”, due to which the Indian weapons are in a recessed state, in turn, impacting the response time for a retaliatory strike.
• Further, the claim of credible minimum deterrence theory has limited validity.

Deterrence Theory

• Deterrence theory is a military strategy developed during the Cold War.
• According to experts “Deterrence is a strategy that stops the adversary from doing something that you do not want him to do by making him believe that the cost of action would be far greater than any benefit he would make.”
• Deterrence theory is criticised for:
  • Its assumptions about opponent rationales.
  • It is argued that deterrence may not deter suicidal or psychopathic opponents.
  • Diplomatic breakouts and opposing ideologies may increase mutual insecurities of threat and in turn, escalate the arms race aggravating the risk of war.
    • An arms race increases the expenses of the countries and hence dents their economy.
    • The military troop build-up also increases a country’s risk of budget deficits.

India’s Draft Nuclear Doctrine

• In 1974, India performed the Pokhran test and said it was a peaceful nuclear explosion.
• In 1998, India conducted another set of nuclear tests and claimed to have acquired full-scale nuclear capability.
• In August 1999, the office of the National Security Advisory released the Draft Nuclear Doctrine.
  • It is the only available source of India’s nuclear stance or policy.
• According to the doctrine, India will pursue a policy of credible minimum nuclear deterrence based upon the “No First Use policy”.
• According to the doctrine, the persuasion of the “No First Use policy” involves,
  • Sufficiently survivable and operationally prepared nuclear forces
  • Robust command and control system
  • Effective intelligence and early warning capabilities
  • Planning and training for nuclear operations

Review of India’s Draft Nuclear Doctrine

The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) reviewed India’s nuclear doctrine after Operation Parakram in 2003. It also added key provisions into the draft which are:

• Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be huge and will inflict large scale damage
• Nuclear retaliatory attacks can be authorised only by the political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA)
• Non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states
• In the event of an attack against India through biological or chemical weapons, India looks to retaliate using nuclear weapons
• Continued commitment to the goal of a nuclear-weapons-free world, through non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament

Key challenges in India’s nuclear capabilities

• Inadequate policy framework
  • India’s nuclear policy is criticized to be inadequate and insufficient.
• Survivability of Nuclear Assets
  • India’s Nuclear Doctrine suggests that India’s forces can use aircraft, land-based missiles and sea-based assets.
  • But these assets need to be survivable and viable.
  • Currently, only sea-based assets are more survivable.
• Challenges with sea-based assets
  • India currently faces a shortage in the availability of the Submersible Ship Ballistic Nuclear Missiles (SSBN) and also the Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles.
  • Also, the available missiles must be deployed closer to enemy locations to maximize their impact.

Lessons from Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

• Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine mentions the use of nuclear weapons in the below cases;
  • In response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against Russia or its allies.
  • In the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in danger.
  • Upon reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of Russia or its allies.
  • Attack by an adversary against the crucial governmental or military infrastructure of Russia.
• This doctrine distinctly shows a degree of intent to risk further escalation, taking into account its threat perception and military forces.
• This document can be useful for Indian policymakers to use as a blueprint for reviewing India’s nuclear strategy.

Lessons from US’s nuclear stance

• The review of the nuclear stance of the US is conducted periodically by a commission appointed by the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA).
• There is no such review mechanism in the Indian context.
• The review exercise helps in the comprehensive assessment of threats, a revaluation of the nuclear policy and doctrine, and also makes recommendations regarding it.
• This exercise also plays a key role in the modernisation of nuclear technologies or weapons.

Way forward for India

• India should formulate a proactive and pragmatic nuclear force structure that helps counter newer challenges with nuclear capabilities.
• There should be periodic reviews of such nuclear weaponry and the nuclear doctrine of the country with the help of various institutions such as the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
• India should also review the arms control treaties that it is a part of and should stay away from agreements that influence India’s nuclear policy.
• India should ensure that its technological competencies are sufficient enough to counter the nuclear weapons of its neighbouring countries.
• India should try and explore ways to negotiate a “No First Use treaty” with countries like China and Pakistan as a means of confidence-building.
• India must also increase its domestic manufacturing capabilities.
  • Example: Indigenous development of long-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
• There is a need to plan the budgetary allocations for the development of conventional military equipment and nuclear weaponry.

3. Climate Change and the Miyawaki Forests

Context

This article discusses the feasibility of the adoption of the Miyawaki method for the recreation of forests in India.

Immediate need to mitigate the effects of climate change

• Climate change has become a major chall­enge for countries across the world in the 21st-century.
• Countries across the world have started undertaking various initiatives to address the challenges of climate change post the Paris Agreement in 2015.
• Through the Paris Agreement, a bottom-up structure known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has been formulated to tackle the ill effects of climate change.
• The United Nati­ons Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has also recognised the significance of forests in providing global carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.
• India being one of the highest contributors to climate change and global warming has been at the forefront of taking up actions to limit global warming.
• India committed through its NDCs to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
• India’s current mitigation and adaptation policies along with actions of large scale afforestation drives are expected to bring in the much needed outcomes.

Miyawaki method

• The Miyawaki initiative is a path-breaking initiative in the recreation of forests, especially in the context of climate change and environmental conservation.
• Akira Miyawaki, an ecologist from Japan, examined the adoption of “potential natural vegetation,” sustained by the existing climatic condition of the region without any human interference or assistance.
• Miyawaki acknowledged the significance of the “native vegetation” for human survival and came up with the “Miyawaki method” of reconstruction of forests
• The method is developed with extensive research and studies on the indigenous habitat of the regions and through diligent investigations of the local vegetation and ecological theories.
• The indigenous forests are multistratal, i.e they consist of an outer tree layer, an inner tree layer followed by a shrub layer, a herbaceous layer, and finally a moss layer
• In the Miyawaki method, the recreation of such native forests generally begins with vegetation and an ecological survey to understand the nature of natural vegetation in the region.
• Later, the seeds of native tree species are collected from the forest communities of the region and germinated. Further, they are planted in these regions.
• The natural hierarchy of the vegetation is ensured during the plantation of seeds and saplings.
• The vegetation in the region becomes maintenance-free after three years of planting as nature manages itself through natural selection.

Read more about Miyawaki Method

Success of Miyawaki Method

• Since 1973, Akira Miyawaki along with his team has undertaken various forest reconstruction initiatives and has successfully restored native vegetation in about 550 locations in Japan.
• This method has also been successfully implemented in several regions of Asia, Brazil and Chile.
• It is said that about 4 crore trees in over 1,700 sites have been planted through the Miyawaki Method across the world.

Significance of the Method

• It is proven that this method plays a significant role in restoring the natural vegetation of the forests.
• This method helps create forests that have the ability to prevent and withstand disasters and help sustain local environments.
• These forests not just help in the prevention of disasters but also play a significant role in sustaining and conserving biodiversity in modern terms.
• Although the Miyawaki method might be a little expensive initially due to its labour requirements the costs incurred post-planting is very little compared to other methods of afforestation
• In terms of mitigating the adverse effects of climate change, these natural forests have the highest carbon sink potential.
• Through the implementation of the Miyawaki method, natural forests can be built in a short span of time with a 100% success rate.
• The studies also show that this method is successful in the restoration of various native ecosystems ranging from cold-temperate forests to tropical forests.
• This method of reforestation also helps in the conservation of various native species of plants that have high economic, medicinal, and religious value.

The need for the adoption of Miyawaki Method in India

• The success of the Miyawaki Method worldwide suggests that India also can recreate its native forests by incorporating the latest developments of research on natural vegetation and the traditional methods of the sacred groves system.
• India being one of the 17 “megadiverse” nations in the world has distinct ecosystems that vary across mountains, coasts, forests, wetlands, grasslands, marshes, and deserts. Hence there is an enormous potential for the regeneration of India’s native vegetation.
• India follows a policy of protecting the natural resources through the sustainable management of forests which includes securing the rights and the livelihoods of the local communities and Miyawaki methods can help achieve India’s conservation goals.
• Large amounts of financial and human resources are invested in the conservation methods but there are several concerns about their efficacy and success.
• It is said that by 2030, India will have about 17.9% of the world population, this increase in the population density will put immense pressure on the natural resources and to overcome this crisis India must look at innovative strategies such as the Miyawaki method.
• The adoption of the Miyawaki method will also help India achieve its commitments to NDCs and sustainable development goals.
• India also depends heavily on agriculture and the agricultural activities have a significant impact on the emission of GHGs and the consequent climate change. But the emissions from the agricultural sector can be balanced or reduced through the preservation of Miyawaki forests.

Adoption of Miyawaki Method in India

• The Miyawaki method has gained popularity in India as it guarantees high survival and growth rate compared to conventional forests.
• Miyawaki forests are found in Barapullah in Delhi, Thirumudivakkam in Tamil Nadu, Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala and Krishnarajapura in Karnataka
• Several companies have invested in the afforestation through the Miyawaki method as part of the corporate social responsibility programmes
• The Coimbatore division of Tamil Nadu Forest Department has used the Miyawaki method to create a forest wall between the camp and dump yard to protect people from poisonous gas.
• In Kerala, the government has initiated the Miyawaki method of afforestation in the state, seeing its success in various parts of the world.

Way forward

• India being a rising power and a developing economy must focus on afforestation and the restoration of natural vegetation and ecosystem based on the Miyawaki method
• The government should promote the creation and sustenance of forest ecosystems through the Miyawaki method both in urban and rural areas.
• The government should incentivise the ­individuals and organisations that take up the Miyawaki method of afforestation.
• The incentives increase with the increase in the carbon sequestration capacity of the regenerated forests.
• The forest departments and other institutions that actively take part in the afforestation programmes must collaborate with the local communities and spread awareness about the Miyawaki method.

4. Policy Initiatives and a Strained Indian Telecom Industry

Context

The article discusses the issues faced by the telecom sector in India and the key initiatives taken by the government to address these challenges.

Telecom Industry in India

• India is currently the second-largest telecommunications market in the world and has witnessed rapid growth in the last two decades.
• The Indian telecom industry boasts of having over a 1.20 billion subscriber base.
• The telecom sector was valued at $217 billion in 2020.
• Also, India is one of the largest consumers of data worldwide.
  • According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the average wireless data usage per wireless data subscriber was 11 GB per month in FY20.
• Telecom is said to be the second-highest source of revenue for the government, after income tax.
• India’s 5G subscriptions are predicted to cross the 350 million mark by 2026, accounting for about 27% of all mobile subscriptions.

Challenges with Telecom Sector in India

• Hypercompetitive nature
  • The intense competition in the mobile services business has led to consolidation and a reduction in the number of carriers.
• Reduction in the revenue
  • There has been a reduction in the revenue from the sector since late 2016 due to high financial pressures faced by the mobile phone operators owing to a price war, which has meant lower license fees for the government.
• Sector’s rising debt
  • The sector is currently troubled by high debt levels due to the intense competition in the industry.
• Low tariff rates
  • India’s telecom tariffs are among the lowest in the world and the current hyper-competition has made India’s telecom service providers unable to raise tariffs.
• Advent of new technologies
  • The service providers are also facing competition from over-the-top (OTT) operators such as WhatsApp which provide voice communications, chat, online meetings, webinars, and entertainment facilities and also do not pay taxes or levies to the government.
• Impact of the pandemic
  • Like the other sectors, the telecom sector too was affected by the pandemic with a sharp drop in the number of subscribers in 2020.
• Other issues
  • Other key challenges affecting the operation of the industry include issues with liquidity, rationalisation of the regulatory levies, Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) issues, spectrum pricing, Right of Way (RoW) rules, and cell tower radiation.

Government Initiatives

• Four-year moratorium
  • The Government of India in September 2021 gave a four-year moratorium to the service providers from paying adjusted gross revenue (AGR)-related dues.
  • This moratorium period would help provide time to transform and restructure the strategies of the sector.
• 100% foreign direct investment (FDI)
  • The government also permitted 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in the sector through the automatic route, which was earlier 49%.
• Increase in the spectrum validity
  • The spectrum auctions in the future will be for a period of 30 years instead of the current 20 years, and the spectrum can be surrendered after completing a 10-year lock-in period from the date of purchase.
  • Also, the sharing of the spectrum is promoted by removing the spectrum usage charge (SUC) of 0.5% for spectrum sharing.
• Conversion of interest amount into equity
  • The government also offered the operators the option to convert the interest amount pertaining to the moratorium period into equity.
  • In January 2022, Vodafone-Idea chose to convert their Rs.16,000 crore in the deferred spectrum and AGR into government equity.
    • With this arrangement, the government will hold 35.8% of the shares of the company till its resurgence.
  • Increase the budgetary support
    • With a view to strengthening the telecom penetration in rural areas, the government increased the budget of the Ministry of Communications by 137% for the financial year 2022–23.
    • This is expected to help the telecom service providers increase their profitability.
  • 5G spectrum auctions
    • Acknowledging the developments in global telecom technology, 5G spectrum auctions will be held in 2022.
    • 5G technology can boost growth and create employment opportunities.
  • Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme
    • Union Budget 2022-23 has proposed to launch a scheme for design-led manufacturing to build a strong ecosystem for 5G as part of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme.
  • Allocations under the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
    • To enable affordable broadband and mobile service proliferation in rural and remote areas, Budget 2022-23 has proposed to allocate 5% of annual collections under the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF).
    • This move will help promote R&D and the commercialisation of technologies and solutions.
  • Optical fibre connectivity to rural areas
    • To provide access to e-services, communication facilities, and digital resources in all villages, the Union Budget has announced that the contracts for laying optical fibre in all villages, including remote areas, will be awarded under the Bharatnet project through PPP in 2022-23.

Recommendations

• The government must focus more on developing the overall ecosystem associated with the sector which includes the likes of,
  • Digitalising the healthcare infrastructure
  • Setting up more smart cities
  • Extending PLI schemes to hardware manufacturers
  • Providing access to digital education
• Investing in improving the overall ecosystem along with measures that increase the service and manufacturing industries’ adsorptive capacity, will boost the capabilities of 5G and help achieve required outcomes.
• The government should also look at ways to reduce the reserve price for spectrum auctions, lower the licensing fee and lower the costs of right-of-ways which will further help the sector address the current issues.

Read previous EPW articles in the link.

Gist of EPW April Week 1, 2022:- Download PDF Here